时间尺度重构EEMD-GRNN改进模型预测PM2.5的研究     

符海月  张祎婷 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(7):1132-1142

合理构建PM_2.5浓度预测模型是科学、准确地预测PM_2.5浓度变化的关键。传统PM_2.5预测EEMD-GRNN模型具有较好的预测精度,但是存在过于关注研究数据本身而忽略其物理意义的不足。本研究基于南京市2014-2017年PM_2.5浓度时间序列数据,分析PM_2.5浓度多尺度变化特征及其对气象因子和大气污染因子的尺度响应,基于时间尺度重构进行EEMD-GRNN模型的改进与实证研究。南京市样本数据PM_2.5浓度变化表现为明显的天际尺度和月际尺度,从重构尺度（天际、月际）构建GRNN模型更具有现实意义;同时,PM_2.5对PM₁₀、NO₂、O₃、RH、MinT等因子存在多尺度响应效应,以其作为GRNN模型中的输入变量更具有时间序列上的解释意义。改进后的EEMD-GRNN模型具有更高的PM_2.5浓度预测精度,MAE、MAPE、RMSE和R²分别为6.17、18.41%、8.32和0.95,而传统EEMD-GRNN模型的模型有效性检验结果分别为8.37、27.56%、11.56、0.91。对于高浓度天（PM_2.5浓度大于100 μg/m³）的预测,改进模型更是全面优于传统EEMD-GRNN模型,MAPE为12.02%,相较于传统模型提高了9.03%。  相似文献   

GRB 170817A的洛伦兹因子和观测角          下载免费PDF全文

林一清 《天文学报》2020,61(1):6

伴随着引力波事件GW170817的短暴GRB (Gamma-Ray Burst) 170817A首次提供了双中子星并合与短暴相联系的直接证据.但是短暴GRB 170817A具有非常弱的光度,意味着观测的视线方向可能偏离喷流轴方向.根据短暴静止系的峰值能量E_(p,i)和各向同性光度L_(iso)。之间的关系以及洛伦兹因子Γ和L_(iso)。之间的关系估算了短暴GRB 170817A以及长短暴GRB 060614观测角与喷流边缘的夹角θ'_(obs)和洛伦兹因子Γ,结果表明GRB 170817A的Γ=45±27,θ'_(obs)=2.2±0.5°,而GRB 060614的Γ=214±93,θ'_(obs)=0.5±0.1°.这个结果相当于GRB 170817A的正轴各向同性光度L_(iso,on)=(2.1±0.7)×10~(49) erg·s~(-1),比典型的短暴少2-3个数量级.GRB 060614的L_(iso,on)=(5.12±1.91)×10~(51) erg·s~(-1)与典型短暴相当.这意味着GRB 060614可能属于短暴类型,而GRB 170817A可能本质上就是一个弱暴.  相似文献   

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响     

方珂  余锦华 《热带海洋学报》2019,38(5):42-51

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。  相似文献   

Beaver dam analogues drive heterogeneous groundwater–surface water interactions     

Jeffrey Wade  Laura Lautz  Christa Kelleher  Philippe Vidon  Julianne Davis  Julio Beltran  Casey Pearce 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5340-5353

Beaver dam analogues (BDAs) are a cost-effective stream restoration approach that leverages the recognized environmental benefits of natural beaver dams on channel stability and local hydrology. Although natural beaver dams are known to exert considerable influence on the hydrologic conditions of a stream system by mediating geomorphic processes, nutrient cycling, and groundwater–surface water interactions, the impacts of beaver-derived restoration methods on groundwater–surface water exchange are poorly characterized. To address this deficit, we monitored hyporheic exchange fluxes and streambed porewater biogeochemistry across a sequence of BDAs installed along a central Wyoming stream during the summer of 2019. Streambed fluxes were quantified by heat tracing methods and vertical hydraulic gradients. Biogeochemical activity was evaluated using major ion porewater chemistry and principal component analysis. Vertical fluxes of approximately 1.0 m/day were observed around the BDAs, as was the development of spatially heterogeneous zones of nitrate production, groundwater upwelling, and anaerobic reduction. Strong contrasts in hyporheic zone processes were observed across BDAs of differing sizes. This suggests that structures may function with size-dependent behaviour, only altering groundwater–surface water interactions after a threshold hydraulic step height is exceeded. Patterns of hyporheic exchange and biogeochemical cycling around the studied BDAs resemble those around natural beaver dams, suggesting that BDAs may provide comparable benefits to channel complexity and near-stream function over a 1-year period.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of NLCD 2011 percent impervious cover for selected USA metropolitan areas     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

The emergence of high-resolution land cover data has created the opportunity to assess the accuracy of impervious cover (IC) provided by the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). We assessed the accuracy of the 900 m² NLCD2011 %IC for 18 metropolitan areas throughout the conterminous United States using reference data from 1 m² land cover data developed as part of the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s EnviroAtlas project. Agreement was assessed from two perspectives: 1) sensitivity to the size of the assessment unit used for the comparison, and 2) utility of NLCD %IC to serve as a proxy for high-resolution IC. The former perspective was considered because statistical relationships can be sensitive to assessment unit size and shape, and the latter perspective was considered because high resolution (reference) %IC data are not available nationwide. The utility of NLCD %IC as a proxy for the high resolution data was assessed for seven lattice (square) cell sizes ranging from 1 ha to 200 ha using four EnviroAtlas IC indicators: 1) %IC per 100 ha (1 km²); 2) %IC by Census block group; 3) %IC within a 15 m (radius) of the riparian zone, and; 4) %IC within a 50 m (radius) of the riparian zone. Agreement was quantified as per assessment unit deviation (NLCD %IC – reference %IC) and summarized as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Deviation (MD) both within and across the 18 metropolitan areas. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (y = reference %IC and x = NLCD %IC) was also used to evaluate the quality of the NLCD %IC data. MAD was ≤ 5% for six of the seven lattice cell sizes. MAD was also ≤ 5% for Census block groups > 100 ha and for both riparian units. These results suggest that uncertainty attributable to the measurement of %IC was no greater than the uncertainty related to the effect of IC on aquatic resources that have been derived from studies of aquatic condition (e.g., benthic fauna) over a range of %IC. Overall, agreement was variable from one metropolitan area to the next. Agreement improved as assessment unit size increased and declined as the level of urbanization (NLCD %IC) increased. NLCD %IC tended to underestimate reference %IC overall, but NLCD %IC was sometimes greater than reference %IC in urbanized settings.  相似文献   

复杂地形景区三维导览图的设计与实现     

吴思锴  李百寿  郭家豪  李雪  张卫平 《北京测绘》2020,(1):38-43

为满足复杂地形景区对三维地图导览的需求,构建更为清晰的三维地图模型,提供良好的三维导览地图设计方案显得尤为重要。为了更好地与卫星影像进行贴合,DEM数据的采样密度要与卫星影像的分辨率一致。本文通过对比当下常用的四种空间插值方法的适用范围与运用特点,设置相关阈值及权重,直观比较了四种插值方法产生的插值结果,选择更适合复杂景区DEM插值的插值方法并对其进行精度提升,以此得到符合精度要求的DEM数据。最后利用相应地区的卫星影像进行地图投影及影像贴图,两种数据结合构建复杂景区的三维地图模型,给游客带来更为精确直观的定位信息和空间要素信息。  相似文献   

基于倾斜摄影测量的大比例尺三维测图技术     

李通 《北京测绘》2020,(4):543-546

目前,城市大比例尺地形图更新主要采用全野外的测量方法,不仅耗费大量的劳动力,并且效率低下。旋翼机和倾斜摄影测量技术的快速发展,为城市大比例尺地形图的测绘与更新提供了全新的技术手段。本文以滕州市城区约10 km2的1∶500地形图测绘项目为例,采用大疆精灵4 Pro旋翼机进行数据获取,Smart 3D软件进行空三加密及三维建模,最后在EPS软件中进行三维测图,并对地形图成果进行了精度检核,验证了技术方案的可行性,为同类项目提供了有益参考。  相似文献   

Monitoring soil surface roughness under growing winter wheat with low-altitude UAV sensing: Potential and limitations     

Nils Onnen  Anette Eltner  Goswin Heckrath  Kristof Van Oost 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3747-3759

Soil surface roughness (SSR) is an important factor in controlling sediment and runoff generation, influencing directly a wide spectrum of erosion parameters. SSR is highly variable in time and space under natural conditions, and characterizing SSR to improve the parameterization of hydrological and erosion models has proved challenging. Our study uses recent technological and algorithmic developments in capturing and processing close aerial sensing data to evaluate how high-resolution imagery can assist the temporally and spatially explicit monitoring of SSR. We evaluated the evolution of SSR under natural rainfall and growing vegetation conditions on two arable fields in Denmark. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry was used to monitor small field plots over 7 months after seeding of winter wheat following conventional and reduced tillage treatments. Field campaigns were conducted at least once a month from October until April, resulting in nine time steps of data acquisition. Structure from motion photogrammetry was used to derive high-resolution point clouds with an average ground sampling distance of 2.7 mm and a mean ground control point accuracy of 1.8 mm. A comprehensive workflow was developed to process the point clouds, including the detection of vegetation and the removal of vegetation-induced point cloud noise. Rasterized and filtered point clouds were then used to determine SSR geostatistically as the standard deviation of height, applying different kernel sizes and using semivariograms. The results showed an influence of kernel size on roughness, with a value range of 0.2–1 cm of average height deviation during the monitoring period. Semivariograms showed a measurable decrease in sill variance and an increase in range over time. This research demonstrated multiple challenges to measuring SSR with UAV under natural conditions with increasing vegetation cover. The proposed workflow represents a step forward in tackling those challenges and provides a knowledge base for future research. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of antecedent moisture and macroporosity on infiltration and water flow in frozen soil     

Freda Pittman  Aaron Mohammed  Edwin Cey 《水文研究》2020,34(3):795-809

Infiltration into frozen soil plays an important role in soil freeze–thaw and snowmelt-driven hydrological processes. To better understand the complex thermal energy and water transport mechanisms involved, the influence of antecedent moisture content and macroporosity on infiltration into frozen soil was investigated. Ponded infiltration experiments on frozen macroporous and non-macroporous soil columns revealed that dry macroporous soil produced infiltration rates reaching 10³ to 10⁴ mm day⁻¹, two to three orders of magnitude larger than dry non-macroporous soil. Results suggest that rapid infiltration and drainage were a result of preferential flow through initially air-filled macropores. Using recorded flow rates and measured macropore characteristics, calculations indicated that a combination of both saturated flow and unsaturated film flow likely occurred within macropores. Under wet conditions, regardless of the presence of macropores, infiltration was restricted by the slow thawing rate of pore ice, producing infiltration rates of 2.8 to 5.0 mm day⁻¹. Reduced preferential flow under wet conditions was attributed to a combination of soil swelling, due to smectite-rich clay (that reduced macropore volume), and pore ice blockage within macropores. In comparison, dry soil column experiments demonstrated that macropores provided conduits for water and thermal energy to bypass the frozen matrix during infiltration, reducing thaw rates compared with non-macroporous soils. Overall, results showed the dominant control of antecedent moisture content on the initiation, timing, and magnitude of infiltration and flow in frozen macroporous soils, as well as the important role of macropore connectivity. The study provides an important data set that can aid the development of hydrological models that consider the interacting effects of soil freeze–thaw and preferential flow on snowmelt partitioning in cold regions.  相似文献   

基于GIS的石家庄市雾霾分析     

苏亚聪  史娟  徐爽 《北京测绘》2020,(2):233-237

为了得出雾霾气象成因机制、影响因素和时空分布特征,以石家庄市区与郊县为研究区域,将2013年9月至2016年12月石家庄市各市区、郊县的PM2.5历史监测数据中的有效数据进行了数据分析处理得到雾霾浓度数据,还有温度、降水、风速、地形和人口密度等数据,运用GIS分析的方法,模拟绘制石家庄雾霾的时空分布图、雾霾与各影响因子的专题对比图,得到雾霾形成机制的因子、雾霾的时空分布规律、雾霾季节变化特征、雾霾与地形间的关系等;运用数据分析软件OriginPro8.SR3分析雾霾浓度与风速数据、降雨数据、温度数据间的相关性。  相似文献